US Waives Limited Nuclear Sanctions Ahead of Talks
The Biden administration waived sanctions covering some Iranian nuclear activities Friday, a precursor to more detailed discussions on nonproliferation issues that are key to international negotiations in Vienna.
“Absent this sanctions waiver, detailed technical discussions with third parties regarding disposition of stockpiles and other activities of nonproliferation value cannot take place,” a senior State Department official said Friday.
Diplomats are expected to meet next week in Vienna for another round of talks aimed at reimplementing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which saw Tehran agree to controls over its nuclear program in exchange for relaxed sanctions, including those on its oil and gas sector.
US negotiator Rob Malley said Thursday on Twitter that negotiations would "reach a conclusion in the coming weeks."
Limiting Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium is key to meeting the nuclear nonproliferation goals of the agreement, though there are also several other projects that the JCPOA addressed. Still, the official cautioned that the move is not a signal that negotiators are “about to reach an understanding on a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA.”
“We decided to restore a sanctions waiver to enable third-party participation in nuclear non-proliferation and safety projects in Iran due to growing non-proliferation concerns, in particular with respect to increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium in Iran,” the official said.
Former US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in 2018, but waited until 2020 to end waivers for certain nuclear activities – including those for work on the Arak research reactor, provision of enriched uranium to the Tehran research reactor, and the export of Iran’s spent and scrap research reactor fuel. In 2019, the Trump administration suspended a waiver allowing Russian nuclear fuel company Tvel to reconfigure the Fordow enrichment facility.
The State Department did not add further detail on which specific activities were being greenlit by Friday’s waiver.
A Fast Return?
How quickly Iranian oil comes back to the market if a deal is agreed could depend on several factors: the technological operation of the country’s fields, how quickly sanctions are removed, and even the structure of the deal itself.
An Iranian oil official recently estimated the country could increase output by about 1.5 million barrels per day within a few months. That is roughly in line with additions in 2016.
Negotiators finalized the JCPOA in July 2015, but energy sector sanctions were not lifted until January 2016, after non-proliferation steps were completed.
Iran’s exports – which had been squeezed to less than 1 million b/d before the agreement – very quickly rebounded once oil sector sanctions were relaxed in January 2016.
They rose to about 1.5 million b/d in February of that year and then topped 2 million barrels per day in April.